Are we nearing the end of Bitcoin’s current bull cycle? CryptoQuant flags major bearish signals
According to recent analysis from the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has now entered its most negative phase of the current bull market, raising concerns that the cycle may be approaching its final stages. The firm’s latest weekly assessment shows a combination of weakening demand, declining momentum, and deteriorating market structure.
One of the key indicators highlighted is CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, which has fallen sharply to 20 out of 100. This score reflects overall market conditions, and such a low reading typically signals strong bearish pressure. Several components of this index—such as spot buying activity, liquidity growth, and price strength—have all shown significant decline, suggesting that investors are becoming less willing to accumulate Bitcoin.
On the technical side, Bitcoin recently dipped below its 365-day moving average, a level that had consistently acted as support during earlier corrections in this cycle. The inability to maintain this threshold is seen as a major structural weakness, implying that sentiment may have shifted from short-term uncertainty to broader market pessimism.
Institutional demand has also slowed down noticeably. Major corporate buyers who once accumulated Bitcoin aggressively appear to be pausing or reducing their purchases. Some publicly listed companies that hold large quantities of Bitcoin have seen their stock valuations drop to the point where raising new capital for more BTC acquisitions has become difficult. This has weakened one of the important pillars of previous price surges.
Additionally, inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have lost momentum. Earlier in the cycle, ETF demand played a crucial role in pushing Bitcoin to new highs. The recent stagnation in ETF activity suggests that institutional enthusiasm has cooled, reducing one of the market’s strongest previous drivers.
CryptoQuant’s analysis further argues that the current bull market may no longer be fueled by new catalysts. In earlier cycles, enthusiasm was supported by clear narratives—such as institutional adoption, favorable macroeconomic conditions, or major regulatory breakthroughs. At present, analysts see no comparable force capable of generating a new wave of strong upward momentum.
The report also raises questions about the nature of Bitcoin cycles themselves. While many assume cycles are tied directly to the halving schedule, CryptoQuant suggests they may instead be shaped primarily by fluctuations in demand. From this perspective, the current cycle—beginning around 2022—could be losing steam simply because the sources of strong demand have faded.
Source: Julio Moreno
Despite the downturn, CryptoQuant emphasizes that the situation does not resemble a catastrophic collapse. Bitcoin is down roughly 28%, yet still sits above a potential support zone around $90,000–$92,000 based on their valuation models. They also note that even during bearish phases, markets often produce strong temporary rebounds that can rise 40%–50% before ultimately continuing their downward trajectory.
However, analysts warn that the former 365-day moving average—now positioned near $102,600—could act as a significant resistance level moving forward. If Bitcoin remains below this threshold, upward recovery may be limited or slow.
Overall, the report portrays a market that is transitioning into a more fragile stage. Fundamental demand indicators are weakening, major bullish catalysts have faded, and investors appear increasingly cautious. While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains a topic of debate, the near-term environment suggests the potential for a prolonged consolidation phase or continued downward pressure.
Source: Cointelegraph Edited by Sonarx