The global cryptocurrency market could experience an unprecedented surge, potentially tripling in value to $10 trillion by the end of 2026. According to Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, this outcome hinges on a Republican sweep of both chambers of the U.S. Congress. With favorable political conditions and the potential for pro-crypto policies, Kendrick foresees a 300% growth in the digital assets market over the next two years.
Political Winds Shaping the Crypto Market
Currently, Republicans have secured the Senate and the presidency, but the House of Representatives remains in flux. Nevertheless, Kendrick asserts that a full Republican takeover is likely, and if it happens, the stage will be set for an era of crypto-friendly legislation. The anticipation of such a political environment has already sparked optimism among investors and industry stakeholders.
“A Republican sweep would pave the way for an administration that is much more supportive of digital assets,” Kendrick explained. “We think the positive developments will be enough to push the overall digital assets market cap to $10 trillion by the end of 2026, up from $2.7 trillion currently.”
Potential Catalysts for Growth
Kendrick outlines several key factors that could fuel the market’s rapid expansion. A Republican-led Congress is expected to introduce regulatory reforms that favor the cryptocurrency industry. Among these potential changes is the repeal of Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 121, a regulation that has placed stringent requirements on companies holding crypto assets. Additionally, Kendrick anticipates the introduction of clear stablecoin regulations, which would provide a framework for these essential digital currencies to flourish.
Another significant change could come from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The current SEC has taken a hardline approach to digital assets, but Kendrick believes a Republican administration would soften the agency’s stance. “We anticipate a friendlier regulatory environment at the SEC, which could catalyze further investment and innovation in the crypto space,” he said.
One of the more ambitious ideas floated by Kendrick is the possibility of the U.S. government adding bitcoin to its reserves. While he acknowledges that this is a “low-probability” event, he also emphasizes that it would have a monumental impact on the market if it were to happen.
Sectors Poised to Thrive
Beyond the general market cap increase, Kendrick identifies several sectors within the crypto ecosystem that could benefit disproportionately. He points to the rapid growth of crypto gaming, tokenization, and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePin) as areas with high potential.
“Looking at end-use cases, we expect further growth in gaming and tokenization,” Kendrick said. “We also see potential in emerging subcategories like decentralized physical infrastructure and consumer social applications as digital assets become increasingly mainstream.”
These sectors are already seeing innovation and investment, but a more favorable regulatory backdrop could accelerate their development. For example, DePin networks, which use blockchain to manage physical assets like wireless networks or decentralized energy grids, are still in their infancy. However, Kendrick believes that regulatory clarity could unlock significant growth, making these networks a cornerstone of the next crypto bull run.
Bitcoin and Ether Price Targets
Standard Chartered has maintained bullish price targets for both bitcoin and ether, assuming a favorable political and regulatory environment. By the end of 2025, the bank projects that bitcoin could reach $200,000 and ether $10,000. These ambitious forecasts rest on the assumption that crypto markets will receive the regulatory support needed to thrive.
However, Kendrick also notes that digital assets with more specialized use cases could outpace even the major cryptocurrencies. He specifically mentions Solana as a potential outperformer. “Digital assets with well-defined utility, like Solana, are positioned to exceed the returns of more established assets like bitcoin and ether,” he explained.
Implications of a Republican Sweep
If Republicans gain control of Congress, Kendrick believes that the new administration would act swiftly to implement supportive policies for digital assets. The anticipated regulatory changes could provide long-awaited clarity for investors, attracting institutional capital and fostering innovation.
This political shift could also alleviate some of the current challenges faced by the crypto industry. For instance, the repeal of SAB 121 would make it easier for companies to hold crypto assets on their balance sheets, encouraging wider corporate adoption. Additionally, a softer SEC approach could open the door for new crypto financial products, including the long-awaited approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
“With the right regulatory environment, we believe the U.S. could become a global leader in digital assets,” Kendrick emphasized. “This would not only drive market cap growth but also solidify crypto as a mainstream asset class.”
Market Reaction and Current Trends
Despite Kendrick’s optimistic outlook, the crypto market has been relatively flat in recent days. The total market capitalization stands at $2.7 trillion, a slight decline of 0.4% over the past 24 hours, according to data from Coingecko. Bitcoin remains the dominant force in the market, with a 56% dominance rate, while ether holds a 13.1% share.
However, even in this stagnant environment, the anticipation of political and regulatory shifts is keeping investor sentiment buoyant. Many market participants are closely watching the unfolding U.S. election dynamics, as the outcome could have a profound impact on the direction of digital assets.
A High-Stakes Scenario for the Crypto World
The prospect of a Republican-dominated Congress has set the stage for what could be a defining period for cryptocurrencies. With policies that promise to reduce regulatory burdens and promote innovation, the crypto market has the potential to enter a new era of exponential growth. Yet, the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty. Political outcomes are never guaranteed, and the evolving regulatory landscape will require careful navigation by industry leaders.
Standard Chartered’s forecast is bold, but it captures the transformative possibilities that lie at the intersection of politics and technology. As 2024 draws to a close, the crypto community waits with bated breath, hoping that the right conditions will align to make Kendrick’s $10 trillion vision a reality.